Population projections predict British Columbia’s population will continue to grow, but fall behind Alberta (Black Press File).

B.C. population on pace to fall behind Alberta

Provincial population could reach almost seven million in 2043, but Alberta is growing faster

British Columbia could be home to seven million people by 2043, but still fall behind Alberta in population size.

That is one of the projections found in a new report from Statistics Canada. It predicts the provincial population will continue to grow over the next 25 years according to all scenarios. But if so, the range of predictions varies, from 5.61 million under the low-growth scenario to 6.94 million under the high-growth scenario. Statistics Canada pegs the current population at 4.99 million in 2018.

The agency gamed out nine scenarios involving various demographics factors such as natural birth rate and immigration and almost all scenarios could see Alberta surpass British Columbia by 2043 to become the third most populous province in Canada.

RELATED: International migration drives population rise in B.C.

RELATED: Canada’s population clock shows demographic changes in real time

“In all scenarios, the rate of population growth in Alberta would be the highest among Canadian provinces over the next 25 years,” reads an accompanying analysis from Statistics Canada. “By 2043, Alberta’s population would number between [six] million and 7.3 million inhabitants depending on the scenario, compared with 4.3 million in 2018.”

All scenarios show Ontario would remain the most populous province, with Alberta and Ontario accounting for more than half of the overall national population between 2018 and 2043 in all scenarios.

By 2068, the Canadian population could reach anywhere between 44.4 million and 70.2 million by 2068. According to the medium-growth scenario, the Canadian population would grow from 37.1 million in 2018 to 55.2 million by 2068.

What accounts for the growth? Immigration, mainly. “While the populations of many developed countries are expected to decrease, Canada’s population is projected to grow over the next 50 years, largely because of strong immigration,” it reads.

But immigration won’t stop the Canadian society from aging. All projections show seniors will continue to outnumber children, a pattern dating back to 2016. By 2068, seniors could account for up to 30 per cent of the Canadian population, while the share of persons of working age (15 to 64 years) could decrease from 67 per cent in 2018 to a possible low of 58 per cent in 2068, a development with significant consequences for the Canadian economy and the sustainability of the welfare.

Broadly speaking, the population projections confirm Ontario’s demographic dominance, predict demographic growth in western Canada centred on Alberta, and an aging Atlantic Canada. They also suggest the declining salience of Canada’s linguistic fault lines.

Quebec, home to almost eight out of 10 residents who claim French as their first mother tongue, could see its population drop. It could decrease from 22.6 per cent in 2018 to between 20.1 per cent and 20.6 per cent by 2043. Recent years have also seen a proliferation of immigrants from countries, whose dominant language is neither French nor English.


Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

wolfgang.depner@peninsulanewsreview.com

Just Posted

Kettle volunteers needed by Salvation Army

Shifts can be two hours long

Houston homicide suspect remanded in custody

A Houston man accused of the second degree murder of Elija Dumont… Continue reading

Happy Birthday Noreen

Noreen Scott celebrated her 90th birthday last Saturday with family and friends… Continue reading

Youth driver training wanted

Seen as a boost for employment prospects

VIDEO: UBC exchange students offered $1,000 to help with leaving Hong Kong

The university said 31 of its students were attending four universities in Hong Kong

Woman calls 911 to say she was late for train, asks Ontario police for ‘emergency ride’

Peel Regional Police received more than 180,000 improper calls so far this year

It could take you 218 years to save up for a house in this B.C. city

It would take 27 years in the most affordable city in the Lower Mainland

‘Actors can play any roles’: Debate over ‘colour-blind’ casting after Victoria lawsuit

Tenyjah Indra McKenna filed a complaint over racially-motivated casting

Infants more vulnerable to measles than previously thought: Canadian study

Babies typically don’t receive the measles vaccine until they are 12 months old

Shatner, Obomsawin among 39 inductees to Order of Canada today

Shatner is being given one of Canada’s highest civilian honours for his 60-year career

John Mann, singer and songwriter of group Spirit of the West dead at 57

Mann died peacefully in Vancouver on Wednesday from early onset Alzheimer’s

Teacher tells B.C. Supreme Court that student was ‘happy’ to watch smudging ceremony in classroom

Case being heard in Nanaimo over indigenous cultural practice in Port Alberni classroom

VIDEO: B.C. high school’s turf closed indefinitely as plastic blades pollute waterway

Greater Victoria resident stumbles on plastic contamination from Oak Bay High

Most Read